839
FXUS66 KLOX 160941
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
241 AM PDT Thu Apr 16 2026

.SYNOPSIS...16/120 AM.

Dry and warmer weather is expected for the remainder of this
week. Gusty northerly winds will develop over mountains and
Antelope Valley today, shifting to northeast and becoming focused
over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties on Friday. There is a
chance of rain next Monday or Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...16/239 AM.

Expect to see patchy fog in the Salinas River Valley and possibly
the LA Basin early this morning, along with some mid to high level
clouds passing over the area throughout the day. A cold inside
slider continues to track through the Great Basin and into
Colorado through Friday that will bring periods of gusty north to
northeast winds to portions of southwest California over the next
few days. Winds today will increase and turn offshore over the
interior, with the strongest gusts near the I-5 corridor and
Antelope Valley. Current wind advisories for this area look on
track. These offshore winds will likely lead to warming near the
coasts, especially for Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo County.
As winds shift to the northeast this evening, they strengthen
further, reaching wind advisory levels for the Santa Lucia
Mountains, Santa Ynez Range, possibly the interior Santa Barbara
County mountains. Will also likely need wind advisories Thursday
night for the Antelope Valley and foothills, along with Santa Ana
prone areas by Friday morning.

The northerly winds will create some downslope warming across the
coast and valleys today leading to 2-4 degrees of warming today.
However, thick high clouds could limit warming at least through
mid afternoon.

Upper level winds will shift more east into Friday creating our
next Santa Ana wind event, peaking mid morning Friday through mid
afternoon. Expecting at least advisory level winds across the
usual Santa Ana wind favored areas of LA/Ventura Counties and
possibly low end high wind warning levels in the mountains.
Models show 850mb winds around 60-65kt, so there is 20-30% chance
that high wind warnings could be needed at isolated lower
elevation areas, especially in the Simi Valley/Thousand Oaks area
of Ventura County as well as the western Santa Monica mountains.

Additional downslope warming off the mountains will push
temperatures up into the upper 70s to mid 80s across coasts and
valleys.

Gradients and upper support drop off quickly later Friday into
Saturday, so much less wind expected. However, temperatures will
continue to warm up away from the immediate coast with some upper
80s likely in the warmest valleys and intermediate areas in the
mid 80s.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...16/238 AM.

Still a bit of uncertainty in the long term, especially Monday
through Wednesday. However, as of now, impacts look to be minimal
locally. On Sunday, pressure gradients turn back to onshore ahead
of a cold upper level low pressure system that will make its way
southward from the Pacific NW through the weak. With the return of
onshore gradients, highs will cool several degrees, but highs will
remain in the low 80s across the valleys, mid 70s to around 80 in
Downtown LA and across other inland coastal areas.

The remainder of the forecast through next week really depends on
the track and speed of the cold and cut off upper low sliding
down the West Coast. Temperatures will continue to cool, though
the amount of daily cooling could be as much as 4-6 degrees or as
little as 1-3. Will likely see increasing low clouds and fog for
coast and possibly valleys at some point. Rain is a possibility as
well, though timing and exact amounts is still uncertain. Rain
could fall anywhere between Monday through Wednesday, or not at
all. At this time, amounts look to be pretty minimal, with some
solutions showing totals around 0.50 inches or less, mainly north
of Point Conception.

&&

.AVIATION...16/0640Z.

At 0536Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 600 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was 1100 feet with a temperature of 18 C.

Low to moderate confidence in KLAX, KSMO, and KLGB TAFs through
17Z Thu and again after 05Z Fri. Moderate to high confidence in
KSMX and KPRB TAFs through 16Z. Elsewhere and otherwise, high
confidence in TAFs.

There is a chance that IFR to low MVFR CIG/VSBY restrictions
develop between 07Z-16Z Thursday at KSMX (30%) and KPRB (20%),
and between 07-16Z Thursday and again after 05Z Friday at KLAX
(40%), KLGB (40%), and KSMO (35%).

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in TAF through 17Z, and again
after 05Z Fri. There is a 40% chance of BKN008-015 conds between
07Z-16Z Thu, and again after 05 Fri. No significant east wind
component expected, however there is a 30% chance of reaching 5
kt 10-15Z each morning.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF. No wind issues expected.

&&

.MARINE...16/230 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. A combination of (at least) Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
level winds and seas are expected through at least Friday
morning, and possibly linger through Friday night. This afternoon
through late tonight, there is a 50-60% chance of Gale Force winds
and a GALE WARNING has been issued for all Outer water zones.
However, localized gale force gusts are possible early this
morning. Seas will peak Saturday night into early Friday morning
and then diminish below advisory levels through Friday. Saturday
through Monday, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level winds.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, high confidence
in SCA level winds and seas through tonight, with winds strongest
during the afternoon and evening hours. There is a 20% chance of
GALE force wind gusts this evening. Friday through Monday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. There is a 60% chc of SCA level
winds across the far western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel
this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, winds and seas will remain
below SCA levels through tonight. On Friday morning, there is a
50-70% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to
Santa Monica out to Anacapa Island, and potentially across the
San Pedro Channel. From Point Mugu to Malibu on Friday morning,
there is a 30% chance for Gale Force winds near the coast, and
especially below any canyons/passes. Saturday through Monday,
high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA criteria for
all southern Inner Waters.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 9
      PM PDT this evening for zones 340-346. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect from 7 PM this evening to 8
      AM PDT Friday for zone 342. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 7 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT
      Friday for zones 349-351-352. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 9 AM PDT this morning
      for zones 378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zone
      645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
      Friday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Phillips/MW/Lund
AVIATION...Lund
MARINE...DB/Lund
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office