257
FXUS65 KVEF 240453
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
953 PM PDT Tue Jun 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Warm temperatures with afternoon highs well above normal will
  continue through Thursday.

* Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected this
  afternoon through Wednesday, mainly for areas along and southeast
  of the I-15 corridor.

* Dry and windy conditions return Friday and continue into the
  weekend, bringing elevated fire risk and cooler temperatures to
  the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Monday.

Above normal temperatures will continue through Thursday as a ridge
of high pressure remains centered to southeast over southern New
Mexico. Temperatures are expected to be at their warmest this
afternoon, with highs ranging from 95F to 110F in most locations.
Readings will moderate somewhat Wednesday as mid-level moisture and
associated cloud cover moves across the region.  Temperatures will
hold steady on Thursday before cooling resumes Friday and continues
into the weekend as the next system moves into the region. By
Sunday, temperatures are expected to be 5 to 10 degrees below
seasonal normals.

The aforementioned influx of moisture, along with a weak shortwave
approaching from the southwest, will allow for the development of
isolated to scattered convection this afternoon across the southern
Mojave Desert. This activity is then expected to lift northeast
overnight into the Las Vegas Valley.  Low levels are very dry and,
initially, little if any precipitation is expected to reach the
ground. DCAPE values of 1200 to 1400 J/kg indicate that gusty
outflow winds, along with dry lightning strikes, will be the main
concerns. As the system lifts north overnight, low levels will
moisten somewhat, but most areas are not expected to see measurable
rainfall.  The best chance of measurable rainfall will be over the
higher elevations of southern Nevada, but even there, most areas
will see less than 0.10 inch.  The moisture will be pushed east by
Thursday, though low PoPs (around 10%) will remain possible in
eastern Mohave County.

Dry weather returns on Friday and continues through the weekend as a
potent trough (for this time of year) pushes into the western US.
While temperatures and moisture decrease, southwest winds will
increase. Widespread wind gusts of 25 to 45 mph are likely,
particularly on Friday and Saturday. Expect the typical wind
impacts, including hazardous crosswinds and boating conditions,
along with enhanced fire danger. Fuels are primed, and afternoon RH
values are forecast to be 5 to 15 percent. Existing fires and any
new starts from midweek convection will be difficult to contain. See
the Fire Weather discussion below for more information.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...A
band of mid-level moisture will bring increasing showers to the
terminal vicinity, with the best chances for light rain at the
airfield occuring through the morning hours on Wednesday, with
SCT-BKN ceilings down to 8-10kft AGL. A 10-20% chance exists for
some lightning activity as well. Variable and locally gusty winds
may accompany the stronger showers, with brief gusts exceeding 25
knots possible. Clouds will gradually scatter out Wednesday
afternoon and evening with southerly breezes expected in the
afternoon.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...A band of mid-level
moisture will bring increasing virga/light shower activity and
isolated thunderstorms to the region through Wednesday morning. Best
chances for shower activity will be across the Mojave Desert region
with dry conditions persisting across the Sierra and near KBIH.
Otherwise, light showers with locally erratic and gusty winds and
sporadic lightning strikes will be possible through Wednesday
morning as the regional TAF sites with CIGS in the 8-12kft AGL
range. Improving conditions are expected Wednesday afternoon with
clouds scattering out and dry conditions resuming.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A Red Flag Warning has been issued for this evening
and overnight for portions of the Mojave Desert, including the
Mojave Preserve.  Isolated convection across the area will produce
little, if any, measurable rainfall, but dry lightning strikes could
result in a few fire starts. In addition, a Fire Weather Watch has
been issued for much of the area for Friday and Saturday.  An
approaching late-season trough of low pressure will increase
southerly winds to 20 to 30 mph, with gusts to 40 mph.  This,
combined with minimum RH values of 10 to 15 percent in many areas,
will increase fire danger across the region.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...Planz
AVIATION...Stessman

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NWS Las Vegas (VEF) Office