581
FXUS65 KPSR 220005
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
505 PM MST Sat Feb 21 2026

.UPDATE...Updated 00Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High pressure building over the region will lead to rapid
  warming through the rest of the weekend, with afternoon highs
  pushing 5 to 10 degrees above normal by Sunday.

- Dry conditions along with well-above normal temperatures will
  prevail throughout all of next week, with afternoon highs by the
  second half of next week approaching the upper 80s to lower 90s
  and near daily records.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
After a very chilly start to the day that saw many areas dip down
between the mid 30s and low 40s (with some areas near freezing) for
early morning lows, afternoon high temperatures will rebound nicely
with many of the lower desert areas expected to reach the upper
60s to low 70s. This rebounding in temperatures compared to the
last couple of days is due to a building ridge of high pressure
over the interior western CONUS, which is resulting building
heights aloft with 500 mb height fields rising close to 580dam by
late this evening. An expansive area of mid to high-level clouds
will move into the region from the subtropical Pacific late this
afternoon and persist through tonight, causing overnight
temperatures to be significantly warmer compared to last night on
the order of 5-10 degrees warmer. Therefore, most locations will
see early morning lows on Sunday bottoming out in the 40s
compared to the widespread 30s that was observed early this
morning, with central Phoenix bottoming out to near 50 degrees.

Heading into Sunday, the aforementioned ridge of high pressure will
strengthen even more with 500 mb height fields across the region
rising to between 582-584dam. This strengthening of the high
pressure will cause afternoon high temperatures to soar an
additional 10 degrees, with readings in the upper 70s to low 80s
across the lower deserts. With temperatures approaching 80
degrees, this will also present a Minor HeatRisk for portions of
the region, therefore if partaking in outdoor activities for a
extended period during the afternoon hours, make sure to
frequently hydrate and take breaks in the shade. An easterly
gradient setting up across eastern AZ in response to strong
surface high pressure to the northeast will also result in some
breezy conditions, especially from the mid/late morning hours into
the early afternoon hours across south-central AZ as peak gusts
could potentially reach 15-25 mph with some locally higher gusts
closer to 30 mph across the higher terrain areas east of Phoenix.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

The warming trend will not stop with this weekend. The synoptic
and large-scale pattern favors ridging persisting over the Desert
Southwest, with H5 heights staying around 582-585dam through the
end of the month. Under this riding pattern, persistent
southwesterly flow will lead to continued warming through the
coming week, with 850mb temperatures forecast to reach up to
17-19C by mid to late week. Temperatures of 17-19C at 850mb is
more common for late April and early May. High temperatures in the
upper 80s to around 90 degrees is normal for late April and early
May and that is precisely what is in the forecast for this coming
week. Latest NBM has forecast highs in the low to mid 80s for
Monday and Tuesday across the lower deserts and then upper 80s to
lower 90s Wednesday through the end of the week. Both high and
low temperatures will be pushing daily records late this coming
week. Daily record highs in Phoenix for the end of February are
around 89-92F (see CLIMATE section below) and 92F is also the
record highest February temperature. So there is even a decent
chance of setting a new monthly record in Phoenix. The 07Z run of
the NBM has a forecast high of 92F in Phoenix on the final day of
February with around a 75% chance of 92F or higher. Lower desert
high temperatures in the 80s to around 90F will lead to Minor
HeatRisk and the heat will pose a health risk if you spend
extended time outdoors in the afternoon without breaks from the
sun and/or proper hydration. Besides the coming heat, the
atmosphere in the Desert Southwest will remain dry through the
next week and winds will generally be light with occasional late
morning and afternoon breezes.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0000Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

No aviation weather concerns under increasing high level clouds
during this TAF period. Easterly winds will briefly go NW`rly
over the next couple hours and will return to an E`rly component
during the overnight hours. Overall speeds will generally be aob
10 kts, but a few gusts into the teens are possible during the mid
to late morning hours tomorrow morning.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation weather concerns under some passing mid to high level
clouds can be expected throughout the TAF period. Winds will
generally be out of the west to northwest with periods of light
variability this evening. Wind speed will generally be aob 7 kt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions will persist through the next week, with
temperatures warming rapidly this weekend through the first half
of next week. Besides a brief and small uptick in moisture during
the middle of the coming week, MinRH values will be around 10-20%
and overnight recoveries will be around 35-50% each day. Afternoon
high temperatures will go from low to mid 80s Sunday through
Tuesday to upper 80s to low 90s Wednesday through the end of the
week, up around 15-18 degrees above normal. Winds will be light
with an occasional afternoon breeze and follow typical diurnal
directional patterns most days over the next week. There will be
an uptick in easterly winds tomorrow morning across south-
central AZ, with general winds up to 10-15 mph and gusts up to
20-25 mph across lower elevations (below 3000`) and a bit higher
over higher elevations, up to 15-25 mph sustained with gusts up to
30-35 mph. There may be another uptick in easterly winds at the
end of next week, but forecast confidence is currently low. There
is no precipitation in the forecast through next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...Daily High Temperature Records.

       Phoenix
      ---------
2/25  92 (1921)
2/26  91 (1986)
2/27  92 (1986)
2/28  89 (1986)
3/1   89 (2016)

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lojero
LONG TERM...Benedict
AVIATION...Berislavich
FIRE WEATHER...Benedict
CLIMATE...Benedict

NWS Phoenix (PSR) Office